How to win at horse racing
No doubt you were attracted to this page by the title. Of course, we would all like to know how to win at horse racing and beat the bookies.
However, no-one has yet come up with a foolproof method. Even the so-called horse racing experts only get it right about 22% of the time.
You can see the figures at the Racing Post website. Enter the main site, then click the Tipsters link on the left, then Press Challenge.
For all their expertise, they are right in only one in five races. In other words, in four out of five races they are wrong.
It therefore does not make a lot of sense to bet on their selections.
Another interesting fact is that the favourite only wins one in three races, so if you back the favourite, you will lose two out of three races. This is still better than following the experts though. One possible technique, therefore, is to watch the betting till just before the start and place your money on the favourite. The downside of this is that the odds offered on the favourite are often poor. So you will lose two out of three races and when you do win, you won't win much because of the odds.
Statistics
Let's forget trying to analyse the form of each horse in order to predict the winner for a minute and take a statistical view instead. In a race with 20 runners you have a 1 in 20 chance of picking the winner. However, some races have just six runners, so you have a 1 in 6 chance of winning. Obviously, the fewer the runners there are, the better your chances of winning. This is the reason why the Form Cracker race card downloads (UK only) are generally races with 5 to 9 runners. It's not that I can't be bothered typing in the details of 20 or 30 horses, it just that statistically, they are bad races to bet on.
In a race with just six horses, you have a 1 in 6 chance of picking a winner. However, bookmakers offer an each way bet on the first two. This means that you win if the horse comes first or second. So you have a 2 in 6 chance of winning. That's just 1 in 3. If you roll a dice and have an each way bet on the number horse that comes up, on average you will win in 1 in 3 races. In a nine horse race, bookmakers will often offer an each way bet on the first three horses past the post. So you have a 3 in 9 chance of winning. That's 1 in 3 again. In a few races, you get just five runners and each way odds on the first two, or eight runners and each way odds on the first three. This is better than a 1 in 3 chance of winning (1 in 2.5 in a five horse race).
There is a downside to this though, and that is the poor odds offered on an each way bet. Usually, you get 1/4 or 1/5 odds. What's more, bookies only offer a combined bet to win plus an each way and don't offer an each way on its own. This means that you have to be careful on what you bet on. You really need odds of at least 4/1 to win anything if the horse comes second or third. Of course, if it wins, you'll come away with a nice wad of notes. If the odds are less than 4/1 when having an each way bet, you won't make a profit if the horse comes second or third, but you will minimise your losses.
So the secret of winning on the horses is to look at the statistics. Choose races with nine runners and 1/4 odds on the first three, or six runners with 1/4 odds on the first two. Have an each way bet, but only if the odds favour it. With many 16-horse races, bookies will offer each way bets on the first four, so you have 4 in 16 or a 1 in 4 chance of picking a winner, statistically speaking. It's not as good as a 6 or 9 horse race, but much better than any other number. Races with 10 to 15 horses still only have three places and there are only four with 16+ horses. Therefore you need to limit yourself to 6, 9 or 16 horse races to give the best chance of winning.
Place your bet
Form Cracker will analyse all the factors affecting the outcome of a race and will predict the most likely finish order. Should you bet on the horse most likely to win? Sometimes the answer to this is No. Often the odds on the horse most likely to win is poor, such as 2/1. This is a bad bet. The horse predicted by Form Cracker to come second or third still often has much better odds, such as 4/1, 5/1 or better. Remember that it only has to come in the first three in a nine horse race for you to come away with a profit on an each way bet. Of course, it still has a chance of winning too. For this reason, I don't always place my money on the horse that is predicted to win. Look at the odds the bookmaker is offering and if they are better on the second or third horse, you can have an each way bet on it coming in the first three.
Check the result
When the race result is known, you should check the actual result against Form Cracker's prediction. For example, 25 races were analysed by Form Cracker and in four races it correctly predicted the winner. This is not very good. However, in six races the predicted winner actually came second and with an each way bet, you would still win.
For some odd reason, in 10 of the 25 races the horse predicted to come second actually won. That's nearly half of all the races analysed. This means that it is better to bet on the horse Form Cracker thinks is going to come second! What's more, the odds are often better too. An example is the 2.20 at Haydock on 19th November - betfair Chase (Class A) (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) Grade 1. Kicking King was predicted to win by Form Cracker (and many top racing experts too), and Form Cracker reckoned Kingscliff was going to come second. My money went on Kingscliff which won at 10/1.
Why does the horse predicted to come second actually win so many races? Well, this might have something to do with the fact that the favourite only wins 1 in 3 races. In 2 out of 3 races some other horse wins.
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